Insider Signals in the Options Market Before Takeovers
Option volume can be an early signal for takeover events
Mid-Freq
Trades lasting from daily to weekly, often based on technical or short-term fundamental signals.
Latest posts — page 2
Trading and Arbitrage in Cryptocurrency Markets
This paper shows that cryptocurrency prices can be much higher in some countries than others. These price gaps happen because of restrictions on moving money between countries, not because of problems with the cryptocurrencies themselves.
Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency
Crypto returns aren’t driven by mining costs or fiat correlations. Instead, they respond to network adoption, momentum, and investor attention. This paper identifies the key factors that predict crypto returns and provides a foundation for data-driven crypto investing.
How Financial Distress Impacts Commodity Markets: Lessons from Risk Flows
During financial crises, hedge funds and commodity index traders (CITs) offload positions as volatility rises, forcing commercial hedgers to absorb risk. This “risk convection” disrupts markets, creating trading opportunities based on liquidity shifts.
Basis-Momentum: A Powerful Predictor for Commodity Returns
Performance * Basis-momentum is the strongest predictor of commodity returns, outperforming traditional factors like basis and momentum. * A long-short strategy based on basis-momentum earns an 18.38% annualized return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.9. * The strategy captures both spot
Decoding Gold’s Risk Premium: What Drives Gold Returns?
Gold’s returns are predictable using volatility and risk factors, but it doesn’t always act as a safe haven or inflation hedge. Instead, gold moves with stocks and bonds, though its actual returns can diverge in crises.
Predicting Commodity Markets: Lessons from 140 Years of Data
The study finds that inflation and industrial growth predict commodity prices, while stocks lead commodities by a month in downturns. Futures trading makes markets more efficient but increases volatility after introduction and during crises.
Are Capital Market Anomalies Common to Equity and Corporate Bond Markets?
Equity market factors like size, profitability, and past returns can predict corporate bond returns,
Reimagining Price Trends with AI
Sharpe ratio up to 7.2. A powerful AI-driven approach to price trends, demonstrating that machine learning can outperform traditional technical indicators.
Exploiting Return Seasonalities
Adding a seasonality factor to a portfolio of market, size, value, and momentum increases the Sharpe ratio from 1.04 to 1.67.
Anomalies across the globe: Once public, no longer existent?
The study highlights greater returns in markets with high trading frictions, such as non-US developed and emerging markets.
Investor Inattention and Market Anomalies: How Media Coverage Drives Mispricing
Taking advantage of limited attention in anomaly trading: The average Sharpe ratio documented in the paper is 1.09 (min: 0.62 ROE, max: 4.45 MOM). Top anomalies: MOM (4.45), ROA (2.40), PEAD (1.60), PERF (1.68)—all stronger in low media coverage stocks.